Two of tennis’s fiercest competitors are about to reignite a rivalry that has kept fans on the edge of their seats for years. Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will meet for the 13th time in the Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open quarterfinals — and this clash promises fireworks. But here’s what makes it even more intriguing: their head-to-head record is tight, their playing styles are contrasting yet equally lethal, and history suggests this one could swing either way.
On Thursday, both players powered into the quarters with emphatic straight-set wins. Top seed Sabalenka barely broke a sweat in her 6-3, 6-2 dismissal of Liudmila Samsonova, wrapping up the match in just 75 minutes. Rybakina, seeded eighth, displayed steely composure to outmuscle Beijing finalist Linda Noskova 6-3, 6-4 in her first Wuhan appearance since 2019.
For Sabalenka, the victory extends a stunning record at Wuhan — she’s now 19-0 at the event and riding an eight-match win streak. It’s even more remarkable considering she once struggled against Samsonova, losing two of their first three matchups, only to flip the script and take their last three encounters in straight sets. Rybakina’s win also carries weight; she remains unbeaten in all three of her meetings with Noskova and returns to the Wuhan quarterfinals for only the second time.
What stood out in both matches was the sheer dominance on serve. Sabalenka conceded just 10 points on serve in the entire match — Samsonova barely got a sniff. Rybakina’s serve wasn’t as statistically sharp (landing only 49% of first serves versus Sabalenka’s 66%) but still kept Noskova from ever seeing a break point until the critical seventh game of the first set, where a costly double fault handed the initiative to the Kazakh.
Now, the stage is set for their 13th face-off, a rivalry with deep roots. They first crossed paths at Wuhan in 2019, at the same quarterfinal stage, with Sabalenka taking a rugged three-set victory. Since then, their battles have grown in significance, including the 2023 Australian Open final — a thrilling contest that gave Sabalenka her lone Grand Slam title so far. Overall, she leads 7-5, yet recent form tells a different story: Rybakina has won five of the last eight duels and currently dominates on outdoor hard courts (5-4), having not lost to Sabalenka on that surface since late 2023.
And here’s the tactical twist that could decide Friday’s bout: every one of Sabalenka’s wins against Rybakina has needed three sets, while most of Rybakina’s have been straight-set shutouts. This suggests that Rybakina often comes in with a game plan sharp enough to seal the win outright — but if Sabalenka drags the match into deep waters, she usually emerges the victor. Will this be quick and clinical or another nerve-shredding marathon?
Beyond pride and rivalry, there’s another subplot: Rybakina’s race to qualify for the WTA Finals in Riyadh. With only two spots left and three of the top four contenders in Wuhan’s quarters, every match carries ranking consequences. While Paolini and Rybakina currently occupy eighth and ninth positions, both can leapfrog seventh-placed Mirra Andreeva if they reach the final. Rybakina’s route is tougher — she must go deeper than Paolini to move ahead. The early exits of rivals like Alexandrova, Tauson, and Noskova have certainly cleared some of her path.
So here we are: two players with a rich rivalry, contrasting styles, and major stakes in play. Will Sabalenka preserve her flawless Wuhan record, or can Rybakina tighten the gap further in one of tennis’s most compelling matchups right now?
What do you think — is Sabalenka’s edge in long battles more decisive, or will Rybakina’s recent hard-court dominance carry the day? Drop your thoughts below — this one’s too close to call.
